by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2008 09:02:00 AM

It was just six months ago that continued claims hit 3 million; that was a big story. Now continued claims are over 4 million ...

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending Nov. 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 542,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 515,000. The 4-week moving average was 506,500, an increase of 15,750 from the previous week's revised average of 490,750.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov. 8 was 4,012,000, an increase of 109,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,903,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows weekly claims. The four moving average is at 506,500. This is a very high level, and indicates significant weakness in the labor market.

Continued claims are now at 4.012 million, the highest level since 1982.

The second graph shows continued claims since 1989.

Note: Continued claims hit 4.7 million during the 1982 recession (not shown), although the population was much smaller then. The unemployment rate peaked at 10.8% in 1982 (compared to 6.5% currently).

This suggests that November will be another very weak month for employment.