by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2008 09:02:00 AM

Here is another look at unemployment claims. According to the Department of Labor for the week ending June 14, initial unemployment claims were at 381,000, and the 4-week moving average was 375,250.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the continued claims since 1989.

Continued claims declined this week, but have been trending higher and are still above the 3 million level.

Notice that following the previous two recessions, continued claims stayed elevated for a couple of years after the official recession ended - suggesting the weakness in the labor market lingered. The same will probably be true for the current recession (probable).

The second graph shows the weekly claims and the four week moving average of weekly unemployment claims since 1989. The four week moving average has been trending upwards for the last few months, and the level is now solidly above the possible recession level (approximately 350K).