tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-100049772024-03-19T00:52:44.793-04:00Calculated RiskFinance and EconomicsCalculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.comBlogger32475125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-53313745749708913512024-03-18T20:19:00.000-04:002024-03-18T20:19:00.241-04:00"The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/the-lock-in-effect-of-rising-mortgage">"The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates"</a><br />
<br />A brief excerpt: <blockquote>Here is new working paper from Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) staff Ross M. Batzer Jonah R. Coste William M. Doerner Michael J. Seiler quantifying the impact of the “lock-in effect”: <a href="https://www.fhfa.gov/PolicyProgramsResearch/Research/PaperDocuments/wp2403.pdf">The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates</a> <br />
<br />
And here is their conclusion:<blockquote>This paper finds that for every percentage point that market mortgage rates exceed the origination interest rate, the probability of sale is decreased by 18.1%. This mortgage rate lock-in led to a 57% reduction in home sales with fixed-rate mortgages in 2023Q4 and <b>prevented 1.33 million sales between 2022Q2 and 2023Q4. The supply reduction increased home prices by 5.7%</b>, outweighing the direct impact of elevated rates, which decreased prices by 3.3%. These findings underscore how mortgage rate lock-in restricts mobility, results in people not living in homes they would prefer, inflates prices, and worsens affordability.<br />
<i>emphasis added</i></blockquote></blockquote>There is much more in the article.<br />
<br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe></center>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-66045528701034890962024-03-18T19:24:00.001-04:002024-03-18T19:24:00.133-04:00Tuesday: Housing Starts<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijRxGUfEWmSWWSWrhJJnKHIZaKdADrCRQHMvcfKBsaalWR757xdn8D0ZJcrRR6rkm9ec1y_UmWPpZE4I6hAGJv4lCnBFYe0uN0hGUzCae2ZOo0KYfLeKdWTvKvfzGxrQgUafY2dUmgbCvFz_gQCY11c_VNOevyDG33s3R6SHxPm0_WZXNkQOoh/s393/RatesMar182024.PNG"><img alt="Mortgage Rates" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijRxGUfEWmSWWSWrhJJnKHIZaKdADrCRQHMvcfKBsaalWR757xdn8D0ZJcrRR6rkm9ec1y_UmWPpZE4I6hAGJv4lCnBFYe0uN0hGUzCae2ZOo0KYfLeKdWTvKvfzGxrQgUafY2dUmgbCvFz_gQCY11c_VNOevyDG33s3R6SHxPm0_WZXNkQOoh/s320/RatesMar182024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /> </a>From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-03182024">Mortgage Rates Inch to March Highs</a><blockquote>Rates marched higher to the highest levels in March today, but most lenders are only microscopically worse off than Friday afternoon. In the slightly bigger picture rates have moved up roughly a quarter of a percent in just over a week and that's a relatively quick move.<br />
...<br />
We already know the Fed will not be cutting rates. We don't know how they'll adjust their rate outlook for the rest of the year. [<b><a href="http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/">30 year fixed 7.11%</a></b>]<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>
Tuesday:<br />
• At 8:30 AM ET, <b>Housing Starts</b> for February. The consensus is for 1.435 million SAAR, up from 1.331 million SAAR. <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"></div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-23747487849712209102024-03-18T16:23:00.005-04:002024-03-18T16:23:53.030-04:00MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Holds Steady at 0.22% in FebruaryFrom the MBA: <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2024/03/18/share-of-mortgage-loans-in-forbearance-holds-steady-at-0.22-in-february">Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Holds Steady at 0.22% in February</a><br />
<blockquote>The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the <b>total number of loans now in forbearance remained unchanged at 0.22%</b> as of February 29, 2024. According to MBA’s estimate, <b>110,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans</b>. Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 8.1 million borrowers since March 2020.<br />
<br />
In February 2024, the share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance declined 1 basis point to 0.12%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased by 1 basis point to 0.40%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 1 basis point to 0.29%.<br />
<br />
“The performance of servicing portfolios and loan workouts improved in February, as borrowers benefitted from tax refunds, the extra day in the month to submit their payments, and continued resilience in the job market,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Only around 110,000 loans nationwide remain in a forbearance plan, with little movement this month. The pandemic’s impact has waned, with only 16 percent of borrowers in forbearance because of COVID-19, compared to 72 percent for temporary personal hardships and 12 percent for natural disasters.”<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span>
</blockquote>At the end of February, there were about 110,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-74436104964266650982024-03-18T13:51:00.001-04:002024-03-18T13:51:28.905-04:00LA Port Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in FebruaryContainer traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually <b>some hints about the trade report</b> since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.<br />
<br />
The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of <a href="https://www.portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics">Los Angeles</a> and <a href="http://www.polb.com/economics/stats/latest_teus.asp">Long Beach</a> in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). <br />
<br />
To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. <br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjihHGP-NQCP0urXca18vifR46fPV9OWTPuzJRmtgKICkbB7Te7V01vX9OEfTsUuF8pT6G2qpPKeyRyUvvxIpgyYQm3T5HavExIG8U_voS-Tm97czkYKwTDmb8jwZdZcYciLW_6ewSXiKI6Sl3j-FABEQCS7elnAoHfWLYqYlopdpT3P5cdnDq8/s1039/PortRollingFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="LA Area Port Traffic" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjihHGP-NQCP0urXca18vifR46fPV9OWTPuzJRmtgKICkbB7Te7V01vX9OEfTsUuF8pT6G2qpPKeyRyUvvxIpgyYQm3T5HavExIG8U_voS-Tm97czkYKwTDmb8jwZdZcYciLW_6ewSXiKI6Sl3j-FABEQCS7elnAoHfWLYqYlopdpT3P5cdnDq8/s320/PortRollingFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 2.8% in February compared to the rolling 12 months ending in January. Outbound traffic increased 1.0% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.<div><br /></div><div>The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9S_mxmbV7JP_Tncx233oDrJy_5Uh1Mlr5pI7X-siKhpEXp9zboqFtojkXcScnZjLEdtniAddjUBoBj-x4_ygU0oU5Blc4ujZMHTO5w_arG47JjzK5atxd6LTHFXqH_gN5_5D7yTZP1V17nV_bDupGYwN8iZkkj4KP99rt2fukbtn_Jlfyl1Dv/s1037/PortFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="LA Area Port Traffic" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9S_mxmbV7JP_Tncx233oDrJy_5Uh1Mlr5pI7X-siKhpEXp9zboqFtojkXcScnZjLEdtniAddjUBoBj-x4_ygU0oU5Blc4ujZMHTO5w_arG47JjzK5atxd6LTHFXqH_gN5_5D7yTZP1V17nV_bDupGYwN8iZkkj4KP99rt2fukbtn_Jlfyl1Dv/s320/PortFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. <div><br /></div><div><div><b>Imports were up 46% YoY in February</b>, and exports were up 14% YoY. There is usually a dip in the new year depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year, but that didn't happen this year.</div><div><br /></div><div>In general, it appears port traffic is returning to the pre-pandemic patterns.</div></div></div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-80892902835686346652024-03-18T10:00:00.024-04:002024-03-18T10:06:11.238-04:00NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in MarchThe National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 51, up from 48 last month. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.<br />
<br />
From the NAHB: <a href="https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2024/03/builder-sentiment-rises-above-breakeven-point">Builder Sentiment Rises Above Breakeven Point</a><br />
<blockquote>A lack of existing inventory that continues to drive buyers to new home construction, coupled with strong demand and mortgage rates below last fall’s cycle peak helped push builder sentiment above a key marker in March.<br />
<br /><b>
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes climbed three points to 51 in March</b>, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the highest level since July 2023 and marks the fourth consecutive monthly gain for the index. It is also the first time that the sentiment level has surpassed the breakeven point of 50 since last July.<br />
<br />
“Buyer demand remains brisk and we expect more consumers to jump off the sidelines and into the marketplace if mortgage rates continue to fall later this year,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a custom home builder from Wichita, Kan. “But even though there is strong pent-up demand, builders continue to face several supply-side challenges, including a scarcity of buildable lots and skilled labor, and new restrictive codes that continue to increase the cost of building homes.”<br />
<br />
“With the Federal Reserve expected to announce future rate cuts in the second half of 2024, lower financing costs will draw many prospective buyers into the market,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, as home building activity picks up, builders will likely grapple with rising material prices, particularly for lumber.”<br />
<br />
With mortgage rates below 7% since mid-December per Freddie Mac, more builders are cutting back on reducing home prices to boost sales. <b>In March, 24% of builders reported cutting home prices, down from 36% in December 2023 and the lowest share since July 2023</b>. However, the average price reduction in March held steady at 6% for the ninth straight month. Meanwhile, the use of sales incentives is holding firm. <b>The share of builders offering some form of incentive in March was 60%</b>, and this has remained between 58% and 62% since last September.<br />
...<br />
All three of the major HMI indices posted gains in March. The HMI index charting current sales conditions increased four points to 56, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose two points to 62 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers increased two points to 34.<br />
<br />
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased two points to 59, the Midwest gained five points to 41, the South rose four points to 50 and the West registered a five-point gain to 43.<br /><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">
emphasis added</span></i></blockquote><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPfiC93f7xLIm-hp1vf2qYhcRvASR6qRAoqhxTIPwOUMvqWNqCyOCiiPmj2gF5AK5GuuIdjdWd0uR59PQseRbTc_hGPBBU1AQF8_exFueWaWKr-2TDPFDMlFba0D_G5jJIBldYVj7Xy_Z1CIZD-dMial5PffYvZkjX5fYBLFSEKAGOxtD9_s1N/s1073/NAHBMar2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="NAHB HMI" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPfiC93f7xLIm-hp1vf2qYhcRvASR6qRAoqhxTIPwOUMvqWNqCyOCiiPmj2gF5AK5GuuIdjdWd0uR59PQseRbTc_hGPBBU1AQF8_exFueWaWKr-2TDPFDMlFba0D_G5jJIBldYVj7Xy_Z1CIZD-dMial5PffYvZkjX5fYBLFSEKAGOxtD9_s1N/s320/NAHBMar2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: left; margin: 10px;" /></a> <i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.<br />
<br />
This was above the consensus forecast. Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-90718729400336880082024-03-18T08:17:00.025-04:002024-03-18T08:17:00.146-04:00Housing March 18th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.3% Week-over-week, Up 22.2% Year-over-year<div>Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.3% week-over-week. <b>Inventory bottomed in mid-February, as opposed to mid-April in 2023, </b>and inventory is now up 2.7% from the 2024 February bottom.</div><div><div>
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYWFpWIsHFFc5lDdjFwj4JUQEgQdpuCSwy9NTQRNJncf8NVKzM4P89Jav3llAfTbKz-e30D8vBeneWfhABvKqELB1HKdTcE-mcAzPRrTJ0AElZsvhkICF7d5wxfvtBy1j0W1J6qghIhPYujMqcl4XrcyU3qSkbjCGrg5824bHK81EbCFIRxo3f/s1170/AltosMar182024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Altos Home Inventory" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYWFpWIsHFFc5lDdjFwj4JUQEgQdpuCSwy9NTQRNJncf8NVKzM4P89Jav3llAfTbKz-e30D8vBeneWfhABvKqELB1HKdTcE-mcAzPRrTJ0AElZsvhkICF7d5wxfvtBy1j0W1J6qghIhPYujMqcl4XrcyU3qSkbjCGrg5824bHK81EbCFIRxo3f/s320/AltosMar182024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a> <i><b><span style="font-size: 78%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br /><br />
This inventory graph is courtesy of <a href="https://altosresearch.com/">Altos Research</a>.<div><br /></div><div>
As of March 15th, inventory was at 507 thousand (7-day average), compared to 501 thousand the prior week. </div><div><br /></div><div>Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. However, inventory is up 106% from the low for the same in 2022.</div><div><br /></div>The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRPjXO6SvpMJ56rzNGTVk1kIAzuGHJqb_LL3NeXGBdrQHm14ZOubMg-hAHoZw1x5UvINUAJchwGdEUp4yKZ1ICBxjMw26WnR5gWxDZRM8pMwZt7-Nx2oS9N1wlDH3cLG5HLvk7hMKR9STp_ICojK8bVDRAuKFwtfdm1PVCEGgFN_hLP5TCjNfF/s1089/AltosYoYMar182024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Altos Year-over-year Home Inventory" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRPjXO6SvpMJ56rzNGTVk1kIAzuGHJqb_LL3NeXGBdrQHm14ZOubMg-hAHoZw1x5UvINUAJchwGdEUp4yKZ1ICBxjMw26WnR5gWxDZRM8pMwZt7-Nx2oS9N1wlDH3cLG5HLvk7hMKR9STp_ICojK8bVDRAuKFwtfdm1PVCEGgFN_hLP5TCjNfF/s320/AltosYoYMar182024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><br /></div><div>The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. <b>Note that inventory is up more than double from the record low for the same week in 2022</b>, but still well below normal levels.</div><div><br /></div><div>Inventory was up 22.2% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 21.1%), and down 38.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 38.7%). </div><div><br /></div><div>Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed a little.</div><div><br /></div><div>Mike Simonsen discusses this <a href="https://www.youtube.com/altosresearch">data regularly on Youtube</a>.</div></div> Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-14807312048238929202024-03-17T21:05:00.001-04:002024-03-17T21:05:17.821-04:00Sunday Night FuturesWeekend:<br />
• <a href="https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/03/schedule-for-week-of-march-17-2024.html">Schedule for Week of March 17, 2024</a><br />
<br />
Monday:<br />
• At 10:00 AM ET, The March <b>NAHB homebuilder survey</b>. The consensus is for a reading of 48, unchanged from 48. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.<br />
<br />
From CNBC: <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/">Pre-Market Data</a> and <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/">Bloomberg futures</a> S&P 500 are up 5 and DOW futures are down 27 (fair value).<br />
<br />
Oil prices were up over the last week with <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/">WTI futures</a> at $81.14 per barrel and Brent at $85.40 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $67, and Brent was at $71 - so WTI oil prices are up 20% year-over-year. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.gasbuddy.com/Charts">Here is a graph</a> from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.44 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.40 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $0.04 year-over-year.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-48116124419647313582024-03-17T10:22:00.004-04:002024-03-17T10:22:55.349-04:00FOMC Preview: No Change to Policy ExpectedMost analysts expect there will be no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at 5‑1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. Some analysts expect Fed Chair Powell to take a slightly hawkish stance during the press conference, since the last two CPI reports were above expectations.<div><br /></div><div>Currently market participants expect the next Fed move to be a 25 bp cut announced at the June FOMC meeting. The market is pricing in a 2nd cut in September - and a total of 3 cuts in 2024. <br /><div><br /></div></div><div><b>Projections will be released at this meeting. </b>For review, here are the December <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20231213.htm">projections</a>. Since the last projections were released, <b>the economy has performed close to FOMC expectations.</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Early estimates for Q1 GDP are around 2% annualized, and it seems likely the FOMC will revise up the GDP projections for 2024.</div><div><br /></div><div><div>
<center>
<table border="2" cellpadding="4" style="width: 520px;"><tbody>
<tr><th colspan="5">GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP<sup>1</sup></th></tr>
<tr><th>Projection Date</th><th>2024</th><th>2025</th><th>2026</th></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Dec 2023</td><td align="center">1.2 to 1.7</td><td align="center">1.5 to 2.0</td><td align="center">1.8 to 2.0</td></tr><tr><td align="center">Sept 2023</td><td align="center">1.2 to 1.8</td><td align="center">1.6 to 2.0</td><td align="center">1.7 to 2.0</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</center>
<sup>1</sup> Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. <br />
<br />
The <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">unemployment rate was at 3.9%</a> in February and will likely be unrevised. </div><div><br /></div><div>
<center>
<table border="2" cellpadding="4" style="width: 520px;"><tbody>
<tr><th colspan="5">Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate<sup>2</sup></th></tr>
<tr><th>Projection Date</th><th>2024</th><th>2025</th><th>2026</th></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Dec 2023</td><td align="center">4.0 to 4.2</td><td align="center">4.0 to 4.2</td><td align="center">3.9 to 4.3</td></tr><tr><td align="center">Sept 2023</td><td align="center">3.9 to 4.4</td><td align="center">3.9 to 4.3</td><td align="center">3.8 to 4.3</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</center>
<sup>2</sup> Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. <br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2024">As of January 2024</a>, PCE inflation increased 2.4 percent year-over-year (YoY). The projections for PCE inflation will likely not be revised.</div><div><br /></div><div>
<center>
<table border="2" cellpadding="4" style="width: 520px;"><tbody>
<tr><th colspan="5">Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation<sup>1</sup></th></tr>
<tr><th>Projection Date</th><th>2024</th><th>2025</th><th>2026</th></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Dec 2023</td><td align="center">2.2 to 2.5</td><td align="center">2.0 to 2.2</td><td align="center">2.0</td></tr><tr><td align="center">Sept 2023</td><td align="center">2.3 to 2.7</td><td align="center">2.0 to 2.3</td><td align="center">2.0 to 2.2</td></tr></tbody></table>
</center>
<br />
<a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2024">PCE core inflation</a> increased 2.8 percent YoY in January. This will likely be unrevised. </div><div><br /></div><div>Over the last 6 months, the PCE Price Index increase 2.5% annualized, the core PCE price index increased at a 2.5% annual rate. However, core PCE minus Housing increased at a 1.8% annualized rate suggesting that 2024 projections are too high.</div><div><br />
<center>
<table border="2" cellpadding="4" style="width: 520px;"><tbody>
<tr><th colspan="5">Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation<sup>1</sup> </th></tr>
<tr><th>Projection Date</th><th>2024</th><th>2025</th><th>2026</th></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Dec 2023</td><td align="center">2.4 to 2.7</td><td align="center">2.0 to 2.2</td><td align="center">2.0 to 2.1</td></tr><tr><td align="center">Sept 2023</td><td align="center">2.5 to 2.8</td><td align="center">2.0 to 2.4</td><td align="center">2.0 to 2.3</td></tr>
</tbody></table></center></div></div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-52967913220155554212024-03-16T14:11:00.017-04:002024-03-16T14:11:00.132-04:00Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Current State of the Housing MarketAt the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:<br />
<br />
• <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-332">Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024</a><br />
<br />
• <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-2-current-state-of-the-housing-7d4">Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024<br />
<br />
• <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/q4-update-delinquencies-foreclosures-8df">Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO</a> <br />
<br />
• <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/3rd-look-at-local-housing-markets-235">3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February</a><br />
<br />
• <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-rent-trends-at-some-large">Lawler: Rent Trends at some Large Holders of Multifamily Properties</a><br />
<br />
• <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-e66">2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February</a><br />
<br />
This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.<br />
<br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe></center>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-37344360191224001522024-03-16T08:11:00.054-04:002024-03-16T08:11:00.132-04:00Schedule for Week of March 17, 2024The key reports this week are February Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales.<br />
<br />
The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.<br />
<br />
<center>
<b>----- Monday, March 18th -----</b></center>
<br />
10:00 AM: The March <b>NAHB homebuilder survey</b>. The consensus is for a reading of 48, unchanged from 48. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.<br />
<br />
<center>
<b>----- Tuesday, March 19th -----</b></center>
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi560ZEWE0ETrah15D5rnegxXgDDr3vniP1TJq-3iBX6EQXKe9zGmWQlm6lZ_Hilk9s3HGNiAP4qTRuJHZtBr1ywsurwHd7PSUG92OKsi4xfiMieokrSyJPU1RoVok__wdBBrqB0HXOkzZ9O5vzZsBKJbe7_rjZ-bxhLvLXtKnq7qHOyiAg-542/s1009/StartsShortJan2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi560ZEWE0ETrah15D5rnegxXgDDr3vniP1TJq-3iBX6EQXKe9zGmWQlm6lZ_Hilk9s3HGNiAP4qTRuJHZtBr1ywsurwHd7PSUG92OKsi4xfiMieokrSyJPU1RoVok__wdBBrqB0HXOkzZ9O5vzZsBKJbe7_rjZ-bxhLvLXtKnq7qHOyiAg-542/s320/StartsShortJan2024.PN" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>8:30 AM: <b>Housing Starts</b> for February. <br />
<br />
This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.<br />
<br />
The consensus is for 1.435 million SAAR, up from 1.331 million SAAR.<br />
<br />
<center>
<b>----- Wednesday, March 20th -----</b></center>
<br />
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the <b>mortgage purchase applications index</b>.<br />
<br />
During the day: The AIA's <b>Architecture Billings Index</b> for February (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).<br />
<br />
2:00 PM: <b>FOMC Meeting Announcement</b>. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.<br />
<br />
2:00 PM: <b>FOMC Projections.</b> This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with updated economic projections. <br />
<br />
2:30 PM: <b>Fed Chair Jerome Powell</b> holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement. <br />
<br />
<center>
<b>----- Thursday, March 21st -----</b></center>
<br />
8:30 AM: The <b>initial weekly unemployment claims</b> report will be released. The consensus is for 212 thousand initial claims, up from 209 thousand last week.<br />
<br />
8:30 AM: the <b>Philly Fed manufacturing survey</b> for March. The consensus is for a reading of -2.5, down from 5.2.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwOXA6SKuI7aRfVKcJjShHA93Gf3hH-8aM1-BgHpCc5eziYzbAm1ZcOpmc5J8nP_mPpVqp7YKwoI73pf09j4lgS7SnGFGtJcumtMzkRWDWkRhXDoqnqirGQ1vBD1iKeO9O74TlrULQQdNGk_hV8d6b2P6r-SWNLD5iao1JpYg36Jmz7W7PdhSd/s1082/EHSJan2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Existing Home Sales" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwOXA6SKuI7aRfVKcJjShHA93Gf3hH-8aM1-BgHpCc5eziYzbAm1ZcOpmc5J8nP_mPpVqp7YKwoI73pf09j4lgS7SnGFGtJcumtMzkRWDWkRhXDoqnqirGQ1vBD1iKeO9O74TlrULQQdNGk_hV8d6b2P6r-SWNLD5iao1JpYg36Jmz7W7PdhSd/s320/EHSJan2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>10:00 AM: <b>Existing Home Sales</b> for February from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.94 million SAAR, down from 4.00 million.<br />
<br />
The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.<div><br /></div><div>Housing economist <a href="https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/03/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home.html">Tom Lawler expects</a> the NAR to report sales of 4.40 million SAAR for February (well above consensus).<br />
<br />
<center>
<b>----- Friday, March 22nd -----</b></center>
<br />
10:00 AM: <b>State Employment and Unemployment</b> (Monthly) for February 2024</div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-87615589304957491652024-03-15T19:46:00.022-04:002024-03-15T19:46:00.133-04:00March 15th COVID Update: Weekly Deaths Decreased<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdiD_psAKBUda3tw5gdvVRY0y5PxcbuJbZfZW6NAslQ4R1Ve_3mFBlnxn3zuXVJXnDVMkUQMMLbEq_ulvQ6ewfI5KPmZGoMuQ0MWHwkDf5-AUAmyhrh0bz98ObVHo3II7kVpc0iXD2SiWMy5Sew4Vv4EGNdeG8HAn-vlz4e_v7iIr1Edukuszq/s394/RatesMar152024.PNG"><img alt="Mortgage Rates" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdiD_psAKBUda3tw5gdvVRY0y5PxcbuJbZfZW6NAslQ4R1Ve_3mFBlnxn3zuXVJXnDVMkUQMMLbEq_ulvQ6ewfI5KPmZGoMuQ0MWHwkDf5-AUAmyhrh0bz98ObVHo3II7kVpc0iXD2SiWMy5Sew4Vv4EGNdeG8HAn-vlz4e_v7iIr1Edukuszq/s320/RatesMar152024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Note: Mortgage rates are from <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/">MortgageNewsDaily.com</a> and are for top tier scenarios.<br />
<br />
<div>Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated.</div><div><br /></div><div>For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.</div><div><br /></div><div>Hospitalizations have declined significantly from the winter high of 30,023 earlier this year but are still more than double the low of 5,380 last year.</div><div><br /></div>
<center>
<table align="center" border="2" cellpadding="4" style="width: 480px;"><tbody>
<tr><th colspan="5">COVID Metrics</th></tr>
<tr><th> </th><th>Now</th><th>Week<br />Ago</th><th>Goal</th></tr>
<tr><td>Hospitalized<sup>2</sup></td><td align="center">12,259</td><td align="center">14,270</td><td align="center">≤3,000<sup>1</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td>Deaths per Week<sup>2</sup></td><td align="center">1,259</td><td align="center">1,518</td><td align="center">≤350<sup>1</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="4"><sup>1</sup>my goals to stop weekly posts,<br /><sup>2</sup>Weekly for Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths<br />🚩 Increasing number weekly for Hospitalized and Deaths
<br />✅ Goal met.</td></tr>
</tbody></table></center><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT33usyp8iABrSMpvvPVBFRgEwV6E-MM7GciqzP_gtGKwMcl350xCQbYfs4WIzPIIE0tcrncBhbk0tI9r1bxAbcnC2dgZrUAjVVs3kBQxs-cMLMY65vkaB8aYLw3r6lDqhsglzOksZo_bZZXP6ANAwCPHC7tx0TFs-BzleV3EWM8TzrEU4bhka/s1271/COVIDDeathsMar82024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="COVID-19 Deaths per Week" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT33usyp8iABrSMpvvPVBFRgEwV6E-MM7GciqzP_gtGKwMcl350xCQbYfs4WIzPIIE0tcrncBhbk0tI9r1bxAbcnC2dgZrUAjVVs3kBQxs-cMLMY65vkaB8aYLw3r6lDqhsglzOksZo_bZZXP6ANAwCPHC7tx0TFs-BzleV3EWM8TzrEU4bhka/s320/COVIDDeathsMar82024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.<div><br /></div><div><div>Weekly deaths have declined sharply from the recent peak of 2,528 but are still more than double the low of 489 last July.</div></div><div><br /></div>And here is a graph I'm following on <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nwss/rv/COVID19-nationaltrend.html">COVID in wastewater</a> as of March 14th:<br />
<br />
<span style="border-image: initial; border-width: 1px;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwZNZh0Tggd3ztlhBFfyuQA2XMudmGQ7YNhuWl5lSBxSzzNAqTvKA-XNt85qnK_lVAYoEbpZ_Cj6A8GDdkILSKi5P_DZB85YWn8uZk0a0LV8oB69-HkRYQNjUlgZicJwtz14Dgw_TP-cR4mVRfSCh0ZXjYdF4ko-kjgmekd2sOGznyAC9_6j11/s992/COVIDWasteMar152024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="COVID-19 Wastewater" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwZNZh0Tggd3ztlhBFfyuQA2XMudmGQ7YNhuWl5lSBxSzzNAqTvKA-XNt85qnK_lVAYoEbpZ_Cj6A8GDdkILSKi5P_DZB85YWn8uZk0a0LV8oB69-HkRYQNjUlgZicJwtz14Dgw_TP-cR4mVRfSCh0ZXjYdF4ko-kjgmekd2sOGznyAC9_6j11/s320/COVIDWasteMar152024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a></span>This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.<div><br /></div><div>Nationally, COVID in wastewater is now off more than 75% from the holiday peak at the end of December, and that suggests weekly hospitalizations and deaths will continue to decline.</div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-84908066129607312372024-03-15T16:15:00.003-04:002024-03-15T16:15:42.924-04:00Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in FebruaryFrom housing economist Tom Lawler:<br />
<br />
Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a <b>seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.40 million in February</b>, up 10% from January’s preliminary pace but down 2.9% from last February’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a small YOY gain, with the SA/NSA difference reflecting the higher business day count this February compared with last February. <br />
<br />
Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 6.5% from last February.<br />
<br />
CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release February existing home sales on Thursday, March 21st, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 3.94 million SAAR.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-72330864051356073372024-03-15T13:44:00.001-04:002024-03-15T13:44:13.826-04:003rd Look at Local Housing Markets in FebruaryToday, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/3rd-look-at-local-housing-markets-235">3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February</a><br />
<br />A brief excerpt: <blockquote>NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to February 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).<br />
<br />
This is the third look at several local markets in February. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.<br />
<br />
Closed sales in February were mostly for contracts signed in December and January when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.82% and 6.64%, respectively. This is down from the 7%+ mortgage rates in the August through November period.<br />
...<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYkvlm3asYJkinKKLVk5HJY4bDogwJRYNuLJ5OsmPSGZeUx3WP-1kHMYIhxqNcQCOjAGQzbcyaOjuPmSK9YpnzfX10eCcx_yHjIKM_dsP6aTvRoQhs18J7uCdMkx7o7n3TxANjLHMYBZAxlXFHU4JkkAS2DW6tlGouVWkV15nTHnuHR5x1OUWL/s667/ClosedFeb2024V3.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Closed Existing Home Sales" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYkvlm3asYJkinKKLVk5HJY4bDogwJRYNuLJ5OsmPSGZeUx3WP-1kHMYIhxqNcQCOjAGQzbcyaOjuPmSK9YpnzfX10eCcx_yHjIKM_dsP6aTvRoQhs18J7uCdMkx7o7n3TxANjLHMYBZAxlXFHU4JkkAS2DW6tlGouVWkV15nTHnuHR5x1OUWL/s320/ClosedFeb2024V3.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>In February, sales in these markets were up 1.4% YoY. In January, these same markets were up 2.4% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).<br />
<br />
Sales in most of these markets are down compared to January 2019.<br />
...<br />
More local markets to come! </blockquote>There is much more in the article.<br />
<br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe></center>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-63859947807031733382024-03-15T11:31:00.011-04:002024-03-15T12:44:39.860-04:00GDP Tracking: Around 2%From BofA: <blockquote>Since our update last week, <b>1Q GDP tracking is up one-tenth to 2.4% q/q saar</b>; 4Q tracking is up three-tenths to 3.6% q/q saar. [Mar 15th estimate]<br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>From Goldman: <blockquote>We lowered our <b>Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.6% (qoq ar) </b>and our Q1 domestic final sales forecast by 0.2pp to +2.0% (qoq ar), mainly reflecting the normalization of utilities output in February. [Mar 15th estimate]</blockquote>And from the Altanta Fed: <a href="https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1">GDPNow</a><blockquote>The GDPNow model estimate for <b>real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.3 percent</b> on March 14, down from 2.5 percent from March 7. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Census Bureau, a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.9 percent to 2.2 percent was slightly offset by increases in the nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and first-quarter real government spending growth from 1.7 and 2.4 percent, respectively, to 3.0 and 2.7 percent. [March 14th estimate]</blockquote>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-62127139022167272562024-03-15T09:15:00.018-04:002024-03-15T09:21:40.600-04:00Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in FebruaryFrom the Fed: <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm">Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization</a><br />
<blockquote><b>Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February</b> after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 percent. Both gains partly reflected recoveries from weather-related declines in January. The index for utilities fell 7.5 percent in February because of warmer-than-typical temperatures. At 102.3 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in February was 0.2 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector remained at 78.3 percent in February, a rate that is 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIU_NwsIIAmH59aDgQc15EtW5qhuPf4R3cm8XdXkdiFlNQeoyBT9TlXWe6eqNFWQ019RKwfT52e6tm7oTyPynzWWay33T89Yh9jy_80izJv4Rqc2wpNoHTCXwaUI4HYvyvncgyGlrTcg0cwzUpqOtCk-AtmooCq30NOL2iu-dLN9TuuckCmEDa/s1009/CapUFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Capacity Utilization" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIU_NwsIIAmH59aDgQc15EtW5qhuPf4R3cm8XdXkdiFlNQeoyBT9TlXWe6eqNFWQ019RKwfT52e6tm7oTyPynzWWay33T89Yh9jy_80izJv4Rqc2wpNoHTCXwaUI4HYvyvncgyGlrTcg0cwzUpqOtCk-AtmooCq30NOL2iu-dLN9TuuckCmEDa/s320/CapUFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).<br />
<br />
Capacity utilization at 78.3% is 1.3% below the average from 1972 to 2022. This was below consensus expectations.<br />
<br />
Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.<div><br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiriVY-Y_E-UcJWWi-X5DdtMr5ts68HhkCXSo6huFU_rmFHWW1KAUFlJJXC6U2X0rqU26H6mG6FMSTD9lt0klN5ebitq4jsxkm2X0CjCNe2HFyLPIvSR5gF3PEVm_exrxYvuHwnQLLYs93qlJLsslr7nPjgkRI2GvSYl9qZS7bAehrVaZ928qsk/s1006/IPFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Industrial Production" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiriVY-Y_E-UcJWWi-X5DdtMr5ts68HhkCXSo6huFU_rmFHWW1KAUFlJJXC6U2X0rqU26H6mG6FMSTD9lt0klN5ebitq4jsxkm2X0CjCNe2HFyLPIvSR5gF3PEVm_exrxYvuHwnQLLYs93qlJLsslr7nPjgkRI2GvSYl9qZS7bAehrVaZ928qsk/s320/IPFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>
The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.<br />
<br />
Industrial production increased to 102.3. This is above the pre-pandemic level.<br />
<br />
Industrial production was above consensus expectations.</div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-84435972726121807772024-03-14T20:01:00.005-04:002024-03-14T20:01:00.133-04:00Friday: NY Fed Mfg, Industrial Production<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_YWaCpsf_p8v62YtdyA82RIFmQGI4biufG-CGAhuLr-igjteFugcKOhj3KKXw6TxkLGsfxKSpqUooaAAsBE4fV16LA59UoVwEes7tr0JK4uqPSnoEFqHMfQ3859wkdZpOtvwLRmncwgyW1a_B9bngg2EGkQYpSVXRHwsyd_CUS1xlSJ6VLNvo/s396/RatesMar142024.PNG"><img alt="Mortgage Rates" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_YWaCpsf_p8v62YtdyA82RIFmQGI4biufG-CGAhuLr-igjteFugcKOhj3KKXw6TxkLGsfxKSpqUooaAAsBE4fV16LA59UoVwEes7tr0JK4uqPSnoEFqHMfQ3859wkdZpOtvwLRmncwgyW1a_B9bngg2EGkQYpSVXRHwsyd_CUS1xlSJ6VLNvo/s320/RatesMar142024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /> </a>Note: Mortgage rates are from <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/">MortgageNewsDaily.com</a> and are for top tier scenarios.<br />
<br />
Friday:<br />
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed <b>Empire State manufacturing survey</b> for March. The consensus is for a reading of -8.0, down from -2.4.<br />
<br />
• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release <b>Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization</b> for February. The consensus is no changed in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 78.4%.<br />
<br />
• At 10:00 AM, <b>University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index</b> (Preliminary for March).Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-62225747481840238782024-03-14T14:21:00.001-04:002024-03-14T14:21:00.173-04:00Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 21.7% YoY; New Listings up 15.8% YoY<b>What this means:</b> On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/february-2024-data/">reported</a> inventory was up 14.8% YoY, but still down almost 40% compared to February 2019. <div><br /></div><div> Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 21.7% YoY.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/data/">Realtor.com</a> has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-mar-9-2024/">Weekly Housing Trends View—Data Week Ending March 9, 2024</a><blockquote>• <b>Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 21.7% above year-ago levels.</b> For an 18th straight week, active listings registered above the prior-year level, which means that today’s home shoppers see more for-sale homes. In fact, the February Realtor.com Housing Trends Report showed that 2024 had the most abundant level of inventory since 2020, and inventory held relatively steady relative to January, counter to the typical monthly trend over the past four years. Nevertheless, the number of homes on the market is still down nearly 40% compared with what was typical in 2017 to 2019.<br />
<br />
• <b>New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 15.8% from one year ago.</b> For the 20th consecutive week, newly listed homes have surpassed levels from a year ago.</blockquote><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM0YqeAJ4qDu0OEby16XK7EsHj_H57FfbwKKdcQiQ6VwmlzLaz731lNxCvbhIzwRwvTkSQEa8G9LKWZxKeI9vvO1OzJM8dy-_VA83is4ABeO8jqkXJOo4uz09zJ4EF4hxnMdMsLGVG-hYIbMnohBPLaAqQYAQClXPh6ErTmq-DC96NDxCSaG0s/s1012/RealtorMar142024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Realtor YoY Active Listings" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM0YqeAJ4qDu0OEby16XK7EsHj_H57FfbwKKdcQiQ6VwmlzLaz731lNxCvbhIzwRwvTkSQEa8G9LKWZxKeI9vvO1OzJM8dy-_VA83is4ABeO8jqkXJOo4uz09zJ4EF4hxnMdMsLGVG-hYIbMnohBPLaAqQYAQClXPh6ErTmq-DC96NDxCSaG0s/s320/RealtorMar142024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/data/">realtor.com</a>. <br />
<br />Inventory was up year-over-year for the 18th consecutive week following 20 consecutive weeks with a YoY decrease in inventory. <div><br /></div><div>Inventory is still historically very low.</div><div><br /></div><div>Although new listings remain below "typical pre-pandemic levels", new listings are now up YoY for the 20th consecutive week.</div> </div> Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-17990546839895152242024-03-14T11:10:00.001-04:002024-03-14T11:10:58.485-04:00Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-2-current-state-of-the-housing-7d4">Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024</a><br />
<br />A brief excerpt: <blockquote>Yesterday, in <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-332">Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024</a> I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales.<br />
<br />
In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more - and review the house price outlook for 2024.<br />
...<br />
Other measures of house prices suggest prices will be up a little further YoY in the January Case-Shiller index. The <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existing-home-sales-increased-4b5">NAR reported</a> median prices were up 5.1% YoY in January, up from 4.1% YoY in December. ICE reported prices were up 5.6% YoY in January, and <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased-edb">Freddie Mac reported</a> house prices were up 6.2% YoY in January, down from 6.3% YoY in December.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihrw3nMxNMzv7T6JHcnYABApmX705QSPJn12MhuqN-3cE1WOXZf1WPJwB7z_dis0I5TGhyH6ObdLVG4GYPhhjwVje3QDfty6Z83BG0l6tyVW30PU_FMGjWqA9RS_f-doNI0HgrDbcLszyPGiK1FtCguruW5VYIj-SGXJ6QFtHNF2gFg_UUJZ9i/s928/CSNARFreddieJan2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Freddie Case-Shiller NAR House Prices" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihrw3nMxNMzv7T6JHcnYABApmX705QSPJn12MhuqN-3cE1WOXZf1WPJwB7z_dis0I5TGhyH6ObdLVG4GYPhhjwVje3QDfty6Z83BG0l6tyVW30PU_FMGjWqA9RS_f-doNI0HgrDbcLszyPGiK1FtCguruW5VYIj-SGXJ6QFtHNF2gFg_UUJZ9i/s320/CSNARFreddieJan2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.<br />
<br />
The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. Based on recent monthly data, and the FMHPI, <b>the YoY change in the Case-Shiller index will likely increase a little further in the report for January</b>.</blockquote>There is much more in the article.<br />
<br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe></center>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-45706549595275193412024-03-14T08:35:00.035-04:002024-03-14T08:46:59.372-04:00Retail Sales Increased 0.6% in FebruaryOn a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.6% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 1.5 percent from February 2023.<br />
<br />
From the Census Bureau <a href="https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html">report</a>:<br />
<blockquote>Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.7 billion, <b>up 0.6 percent from the previous month</b>, and up 1.5 percent above February 2023. ... The December 2023 to January 2024 percent change was revised from down 0.8 percent to down 1.1 percent.<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfGVZMP7VGLNJMOPpdyPlmlyv9dVJwOaL2UEaynawiNYwyJAaSRTf2rr8ueJJMRZ2irC9wFOWIONY4_qSbeWytAFqRMz-3jNSp_sHUF2LyESTf4hiPyeaHmOkwL-IPsL9vudY5dvaFgf1MgmA1i4ZB5KoBgGcsYdZFjd2KOF8HGEohMeuarGL8/s1042/RetailFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Retail Sales" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfGVZMP7VGLNJMOPpdyPlmlyv9dVJwOaL2UEaynawiNYwyJAaSRTf2rr8ueJJMRZ2irC9wFOWIONY4_qSbeWytAFqRMz-3jNSp_sHUF2LyESTf4hiPyeaHmOkwL-IPsL9vudY5dvaFgf1MgmA1i4ZB5KoBgGcsYdZFjd2KOF8HGEohMeuarGL8/s320/RetailFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a> <i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).<br />
<br />
Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.6% in February.<br />
<br />
The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.<br />
<br />
Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 2.0% on a YoY basis.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwDez_XsOGrl2-RdZkyyLu3V5INA3Xsu1arO1bEONGRe4YbndBEjQzzh0i_lY8n-dreyHCvCKvyKPhEPQVNLMPVGfvNXVUie0yLwlFxVPTTIbxCdDnSSqnS1vkQI2PXUBI48kHdu0Ei3Svz88IczQcg1WEGW-4VTeLZ-PkdbWq78HNm3E4kzdg/s989/RetailYoYFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Year-over-year change in Retail Sales" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwDez_XsOGrl2-RdZkyyLu3V5INA3Xsu1arO1bEONGRe4YbndBEjQzzh0i_lY8n-dreyHCvCKvyKPhEPQVNLMPVGfvNXVUie0yLwlFxVPTTIbxCdDnSSqnS1vkQI2PXUBI48kHdu0Ei3Svz88IczQcg1WEGW-4VTeLZ-PkdbWq78HNm3E4kzdg/s320/RetailYoYFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>
The increase in sales in February was above expectations, however, sales in December and January were revised down.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-20710392148614767842024-03-14T08:30:00.012-04:002024-03-14T08:34:57.237-04:00Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 209,000The DOL <a href="https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf">reported</a>:<br />
<blockquote>
In the week ending March 9, the advance figure for <b>seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000</b>, a decrease of 1,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 7,000 from 217,000 to 210,000.
The 4-week moving average was 208,000, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous
week's average was revised down by 3,750 from 212,250 to 208,500.<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPMw4hnG4H3n_g-gb-XwNTug28g7q2KzGO-F4Lx7uunycdiclWDEQNFW0UsIK2K2h_sCic79oK-aJeHMMf5PIQSkSRZ_8A2vvVOOoYJvxSvUE2Ibxq5Xto87MTQ2djHESfHwEl0suYRHqD_2fywI_US3u2rmK5jXpvCcrMzpRPA6gMjw4IBvgp/s1076/WeeklyClaimsMar142024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPMw4hnG4H3n_g-gb-XwNTug28g7q2KzGO-F4Lx7uunycdiclWDEQNFW0UsIK2K2h_sCic79oK-aJeHMMf5PIQSkSRZ_8A2vvVOOoYJvxSvUE2Ibxq5Xto87MTQ2djHESfHwEl0suYRHqD_2fywI_US3u2rmK5jXpvCcrMzpRPA6gMjw4IBvgp/s320/WeeklyClaimsMar142024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 208,000.<br />
<br />
The previous week was revised down.<br />
<br />
Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-16617580116513871262024-03-13T20:03:00.001-04:002024-03-13T20:03:00.131-04:00Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, PPI<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8xWnFMiIszUN34FJFnTI2Yz0ENC5MQ965WDRYlmZ5yGgOxGQ5nHxSUHobtL7UPCWltetvLTkfoRmQxgkfFtsn_Is5wAIzS7Xn-Q4JRyJp-h5rVjQy6QdJo7maHAn_L0mTy9kUOKwffX25WEvGNi2x1D_-rWWB1VF9K784mElM1JHPscxKbeNJ/s393/RatesMar132024.PNG"><img alt="Mortgage Rates" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8xWnFMiIszUN34FJFnTI2Yz0ENC5MQ965WDRYlmZ5yGgOxGQ5nHxSUHobtL7UPCWltetvLTkfoRmQxgkfFtsn_Is5wAIzS7Xn-Q4JRyJp-h5rVjQy6QdJo7maHAn_L0mTy9kUOKwffX25WEvGNi2x1D_-rWWB1VF9K784mElM1JHPscxKbeNJ/s320/RatesMar132024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /> </a>Note: Mortgage rates are from <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/">MortgageNewsDaily.com</a> and are for top tier scenarios.<br />
<br />
Thursday:<br />
• At 8:30 AM ET, The <b>initial weekly unemployment claims</b> report will be released. The consensus is for 221 thousand initial claims, up from 217 thousand last week.<br />
<br />
• At 8:30 AM, <b>Retail sales</b> for February is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in retail sales.<br />
<br />
• At 8:30 AM, The <b>Producer Price Index for February</b> from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-68515900124649455012024-03-13T14:46:00.001-04:002024-03-13T14:46:26.457-04:00Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-332">Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024</a><br />
<br />A brief excerpt: <blockquote>This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.<br />
<br />
I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inventory-will-tell-the-tale-dbb">tells the tale</a>!<br />
...<br />
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/february-2024-data/">February 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report</a> showing new listings were up 11.3% year-over-year in February. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyWshQM4fjmlkS0fsEeX4UN7bROTXW2gqswqwX-goJLqjw9GrjLgd8s73jl2F_XjTzGapHqjrZRDOutd7mdS_N7W91SkwLFzeZhwOqnUN2_Fk6y8_VNshm5EMgk2FpvvMcvTtGyk9b2MBYOWFQTj3umSOQkhvfUuxO6u-pU8ijDMBS_2bQv7ii/s850/RealtorNewFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="New Listings" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyWshQM4fjmlkS0fsEeX4UN7bROTXW2gqswqwX-goJLqjw9GrjLgd8s73jl2F_XjTzGapHqjrZRDOutd7mdS_N7W91SkwLFzeZhwOqnUN2_Fk6y8_VNshm5EMgk2FpvvMcvTtGyk9b2MBYOWFQTj3umSOQkhvfUuxO6u-pU8ijDMBS_2bQv7ii/s320/RealtorNewFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><blockquote>However, providing a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this February as newly listed homes were 11.3% above last year’s levels. This marked the fourth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.</blockquote>Note the seasonality for new listings. <b>December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November</b>. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but we will have to wait for the March and April data to see how close new listings are to normal levels.<br />
<br />
There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).<br />
<br />
And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be in the 6 1/2% to 7% range. <br />
<br />
But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.</blockquote>There is much more in the article.<br />
<br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe></center> Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3855198210262886702024-03-13T09:40:00.001-04:002024-03-13T09:40:34.550-04:00Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REOToday, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/q4-update-delinquencies-foreclosures-8df">Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO</a><br />
<br />A brief excerpt: <blockquote>I’ve argued repeatedly that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble). The two key reasons are mortgage lending has been solid, and most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes..<br />
...<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLAZkDNFgFW_QzhzSo1QvBCxRf_FZ-CJ5VMRZUCrKCtvPeeZnALMcJ7weBBKC2hqnnUTLRfOioF-EWl34gl1UF7X_L2oMrJBC8f9oPkhnek37dXB24turAA5W8Unsh2_b1GiSUv54Eay_s-3nYLZKYsMGeoNlcTBgittcDt0wb-BeGQWCoiaSj/s875/FHFAInterestRateQ32023.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="FHFA Percent Mortgage Rate First Lien" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLAZkDNFgFW_QzhzSo1QvBCxRf_FZ-CJ5VMRZUCrKCtvPeeZnALMcJ7weBBKC2hqnnUTLRfOioF-EWl34gl1UF7X_L2oMrJBC8f9oPkhnek37dXB24turAA5W8Unsh2_b1GiSUv54Eay_s-3nYLZKYsMGeoNlcTBgittcDt0wb-BeGQWCoiaSj/s320/FHFAInterestRateQ32023.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>And on mortgage rates, here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q3 2023 (Q4 2023 data will be released in a two weeks). <br />
<br />This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. Currently 22.6% of loans are under 3%, 59.4% are under 4%, and 78.7% are under 5%.<br />
<br />
<b>With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties</b>. </blockquote>There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/">https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/</a> Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-78215784788800643052024-03-13T07:00:00.016-04:002024-03-13T07:00:00.139-04:00MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly SurveyFrom the MBA: <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom">Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey</a><blockquote>Mortgage applications increased 7.1 percent from one
week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending March 8, 2024.<br />
<br />
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.1 percent on
a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 8
percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 12 percent from the previous
week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago. <b>The seasonally adjusted Purchase
Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier</b>. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent
compared with the previous week and was <b>11 percent lower than the same week one year ago</b>.<br />
<br />
“Mortgage rates dropped below 7 percent last week for most loan types because of incoming economic
data showing a weaker service sector and a less robust job market, with an increase in the
unemployment rate and downward revisions to job growth in prior months,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s
SVP and Chief Economist. “Purchase application volume increased for the week but remains about 11
percent below last year’s level. By contrast, refinance volume picked up by 12 percent, with a larger,
24 percent increase in the government refinance index. While these percentage increases are large, the
level of refinance activity remains quite low, and we expect that most of this activity reflects borrowers
who took out a loan at or near the peak of rates in the past two years.”
<br />
...<br />
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances
($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.84 percent from 7.02 percent, with points decreasing to 0.65 from 0.67
(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHrf-ey0xh1xqrtPmvpz3Seo4O1J1BkJXgEvYjWWOU9GsuvildHl6zTaezrzJI0AcRSWMtaZXSk8FAqHnoqHrWJZemlVXLUEL051dBvQ7d_8L7TVZKqdK_-9h0AvSsBW496xJnQxNN2YGPf0woBiCcrqJdf4ZTSzRZVviFp5C_PalcEyh4Jqo5/s1089/MBAMar132024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Mortgage Purchase Index" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHrf-ey0xh1xqrtPmvpz3Seo4O1J1BkJXgEvYjWWOU9GsuvildHl6zTaezrzJI0AcRSWMtaZXSk8FAqHnoqHrWJZemlVXLUEL051dBvQ7d_8L7TVZKqdK_-9h0AvSsBW496xJnQxNN2YGPf0woBiCcrqJdf4ZTSzRZVviFp5C_PalcEyh4Jqo5/s320/MBAMar132024.PNG" style="border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.<br />
<br />
According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 11% year-over-year unadjusted. <div><b><br /></b></div><div>Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). </div><div><br /></div><div>Purchase application activity is up slightly from the lows in late October 2023, and below the lowest levels during the housing bust. <b><br /></b><br /></div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxVR0UUGVbfO_XHKXJ2tJoGtqOPwmVO8-QPaSxXw9nFQ6NxaMYdOe9GcBCeGW8lOZW12KftzrWp4DBzw3IzrNix6XRDjPdIk97ZSAA94JNl83Xwb8eb1r1KWyMFzdc26aqgU_eZ6dq7ISpp3eMdG27OFSYDbgYkDDLgRoZUiyzFPHHIZPgJlhc/s1085/MBARefiMar132024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Mortgage Refinance Index" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxVR0UUGVbfO_XHKXJ2tJoGtqOPwmVO8-QPaSxXw9nFQ6NxaMYdOe9GcBCeGW8lOZW12KftzrWp4DBzw3IzrNix6XRDjPdIk97ZSAA94JNl83Xwb8eb1r1KWyMFzdc26aqgU_eZ6dq7ISpp3eMdG27OFSYDbgYkDDLgRoZUiyzFPHHIZPgJlhc/s320/MBARefiMar132024.PNG" style="border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><div>The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.<br />
<br /><div>With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and has mostly flatlined since then.</div></div> Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-77303151381061195552024-03-12T20:10:00.001-04:002024-03-12T20:10:00.132-04:00Wednesday: Mortgage Applications<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHfdLb1FQXmeaYXtNPts7Qek5j22ojWRrMAmDzV671R-eCzqbmw6nLRVMP-l8Csz3nh_MJWfrikZ32FPE3GhlRygBkMhAM3d_aGR4VEPhGQdPQxJQTBl3-nVuiGhCM_93audXTDOhOeW8UwrfLpEc6rxv1PjW5a_CCmpMn384b7s0kpeTsQwSq/s394/RatesMar122024.PNG"><img alt="Mortgage Rates" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHfdLb1FQXmeaYXtNPts7Qek5j22ojWRrMAmDzV671R-eCzqbmw6nLRVMP-l8Csz3nh_MJWfrikZ32FPE3GhlRygBkMhAM3d_aGR4VEPhGQdPQxJQTBl3-nVuiGhCM_93audXTDOhOeW8UwrfLpEc6rxv1PjW5a_CCmpMn384b7s0kpeTsQwSq/s320/RatesMar122024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /> </a>Note: Mortgage rates are from <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/">MortgageNewsDaily.com</a> and are for top tier scenarios.<br />
<br />
Wednesday:<br />
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the <b>mortgage purchase applications index</b>.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0