by Calculated Risk on 3/12/2008 10:34:00 AM

From MarketWatch: Freddie Mac CEO sees U.S. home prices falling further

Speaking to analysts on a conference call, CEO Richard Syron estimated that housing prices, from peak to trough, have dropped only a third as far as he thinks they're going to. The McLean, Va.-based company's expecting a peak-to-trough decline of 15% in all.

This implies Syron believes house prices have fallen 5% so far. This is one of the problems: it's hard to tell exactly how far prices have fallen.

The Case-Shiller National House Price index suggests prices are off 8.9% over the last year, and 10.1% from the peak (as of the end of Q4). The OFHEO Purchase Only index shows prices are essentially flat year-over-year, and off 2.5% from the peak.

Syron is using the OFHEO index. I lean toward the Case-Shiller index, especially for individual cities.