by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2007 02:00:00 PM

Note: I'm posting from the local library. Here are a couple of graphs I uploaded before Time Warner crashed this AM.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the NSA sales per month for the last 3 years.

The pattern of YoY declines in sales is continuing. Usually August is a stronger month than July, but this year NSA sales were essentially flat from July to August.

For existing homes sales are reported at the close of escrow. So August sales were for contracts signed in July and even June. Many of these transactions already had locked in their loans by the time the credit turmoil started at the beginning of August. Therefore I expect an even greater impact from tighter standards on reported sales in September.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to NAR, inventory increased to an all time record 4,581,000 in August.

Total housing inventory rose 0.4 percent at the end of August to 4.58 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 10.0-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 9.5-month supply in July.

This is basically the same inventory level as July, although the months of supply increased to 10 months because of the drop in sales.

This is the normal historical pattern for inventory - inventory peaks at the end of summer and then stay fairly flat until the holidays (it then usually declines somewhat). This says nothing about the increasing anxiety of sellers and the rising foreclosure sales.

Hopefully my ISP will be back online soon. Best to all.