by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2007 12:01:00 PM

For more graphs, please see the earlier post: January New Home Sales: 0.937 Million SAAR

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. Recession for the last 35 years. New Home sales were falling prior to every recession, with the exception of the business investment led recession of 2001. This should raise concerns about a possible consumer led recession in the months ahead.


The second graph shows Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) New Home Sales for January.

Sales have fallen back close to the levels of '99 - '02.


The third graph shows monthly NSA New Home sales. This provides a different prospective of the housing bust.

This shows why the Spring selling season is so important in 2007. Will sales recover? Or will Spring 2007 look like 1982 or 1991 when Spring sales were disappointing.