In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Monday, December 18, 2006

Hovnanian: High Cancellations, Falling Prices

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2006 06:02:00 PM

Hovnanian Enterprises Reports:

"We did not anticipate the suddenness or magnitude of the fall in pricing that occurred this year in many of our communities. Our profitability and the pace of new home sales in our markets continues to be adversely impacted by high contract cancellation rates, increases in the number of resale listings and increases in the number of new homes available for sale," Mr. Hovnanian said. The Company's contract cancellation rate for the fourth quarter was 35%, compared with 25% in the fourth quarter of 2005 and a 33% rate reported in the third quarter of fiscal 2006.
emphasis added
On impairments:
"In the fourth quarter, we decided to walk away from $141 million in land deposits and predevelopment costs and took impairment charges of $174 million," said J. Larry Sorsby, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
And on 2007:
"Although we are concerned with the uncertainty currently evident in housing markets, we are providing initial guidance for fiscal 2007, based on our standard practice of assuming that our sales pace and pricing in each of our communities remains as it is today and that market conditions do not deteriorate further," Mr. Sorsby continued. "On that basis, assuming that the economy remains reasonably healthy and mortgage rates remain stable, we are projecting fiscal 2007 earnings between $1.50 to $2.00 per fully diluted common share on 16,000 to 18,000 home deliveries ... We believe that the overall U.S. housing market may hit the bottom in the first half of 2007. However, the housing market is likely to bounce along the bottom for several quarters before pricing and sales pace improves."