by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2005 12:33:00 PM

The Contra Costa Times reports:

The long-booming housing market is moderating, but fears of a bubble are overblown, according to the chief economist for the California Association of Realtors.

In a presentation in San Ramon before the Contra Costa Association of Realtors on Wednesday, Leslie Appleton-Young predicted that 2005 will represent the peak of the housing market, with state home sales likely to fall 2 percent next year.

Median home prices, however, will continue to rise, if at a slower pace. The CAR expects prices to increase 10 percent in California in 2006, compared with the estimated 16 percent increase this year. In the Bay Area, housing prices are likely to climb a more modest 6 percent to 12 percent.

Prices will increase a modest 6% to 12%? I think most homebuyers would be very happy with that "modest" return. The article also mentions the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Dr. Thronberg:

"The forecast for California is mediocre at best, and at worst we are liable to slip into a recession," wrote study author Chris Thornberg. He said California homes are overvalued by as much as 40 percent to 45 percent.