by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2005 07:19:00 PM

The May numbers are barely dry, and here we go for June, starting with oil. Using the same model (described here) the ERPP (Energy Related Petroleum Products) trade numbers for June are forecast to be:

Forecast: Total NSA ERRP Imports: $19.6 Billion

Total SA ERPP FORECAST:
Imports SA: $19.4 Billion (seasonal factor estimated at 0.9925 for June)
Exports SA: $2.3 Billion
Balance ERPP: $17.1 Billion

DETAIL ALERT: The following are the internal numbers (mostly for my notes) that will cause your eyes to glaze over!

IMPORTS: Energy Related Petroleum Products.
Barrels Crude: 328.0 million barrels.
Barrels Other ERPP: 90.0 million barrels.
DOE Price per barrel (Crude): $45.11
DOE Price per barrel (Other): $51.88

Preliminary - Total NSA ERRP Imports: $19.5 Billion

NOTE: The BLS reports petroleum import prices rose 7.6% in June from May. The above model used DOE prices. After reviewing the prior prices and comparing the DOE and BLS approaches, the DOE has been slightly more accurate. Last month I split the difference between the estimates (the DOE was slightly closer).

This month I think the BLS numbers are too high (the real time data is revised significantly every month). The BLS approach would predict P(crude) = $46.35 compared to the DOE P(crude) = $45.11. I'm not going to split the difference, since I think the BLS is too high. Instead I will modify the DOE price forecast slightly upwards to reflect the BLS data as follows:

BLS/DOE Price per barrel (Crude): $45.40
BLS/DOE Price per barrel (Other): $52.21
Forecast: Total NSA ERRP Imports: $19.6 Billion

Total SA ERPP FORECAST:
Imports SA: $19.4 Billion (seasonal factor estimated at 0.9925 for June)
Exports SA: $2.3 Billion
Balance ERPP: $17.1 Billion

NOTE: This compares to the actual ERPP balance of -$15.8 Billion in May, so Oil is estimated to add $1.3 Billion to the deficit in June. Gen'l Glut has pointed out that the big jump in oil imports will come in July.